Post by Kenny McCormack
The problem here is that there is always about 3 false alarms for every one
actual calamity (in the weather predicting biz).
Are there really that many false official forecasts?
Remember, we're talking about the official forecast as issued by
the weather bureau or independent outfit; NOT the sensationalized
hype by the news media.
Also, official weather forecasts include percentage of certainty--
they tell us whether an upcoming storm is indeed a 'sure thing'
or 'possibility'. In this particular storm, it was a sure thing,
or even worse than expected.
Highway departments have long utilized official forecasts, not
news media reports.
ABC News has reported of late on several approaching nasty storms,
and storms were as bad as predicted--with massive flooding or
mudslides in the impacted areas.
In the specific case of this storm and the Penna Tpk mess, I am
curious as to what were the circumstances of the 500 motorists.
Did they bother to check the forecast before the trip? IF they
were advised that a bad storm was coming, was their trip
absolutely necessary under the circumstances? I would think
with high winds and two feet of snow approaching, pretty much
anything ought to be postponed or cancelled. A health
care or public safety worker _has_ to go, but I don't think
a college sporting event is that critical.
Unfortunately, closing a highway in the advance of a storm causes
other problems. Some of the closure points are in rural areas--
where are 500+ people gonna stay? Secondly, some folks will
insist on going on, and then screw up local roads.